The hottest commercial vehicle industry will hit t

Commercial vehicle industry will hit the bottom and rebound in 2013, leading enterprises are optimistic

commercial vehicle industry will hit the bottom and rebound in 2013, leading enterprises are optimistic

China Construction machinery information

Guide: affected by factors such as the industry cycle and the slowdown of China's industrialization process, the overall performance of commercial vehicle enterprises was poor last year, and the industry experienced negative growth for two consecutive years after reaching a historical peak in 2010, at the lowest point in 20 years. According to China Securities News, in this context, 8% of the annual report has been disclosed

affected by factors such as the industry cycle and the slowdown of China's industrialization process, the overall performance of commercial vehicle enterprises was poor last year. After reaching the historical peak in 2010, the industry experienced negative growth for two consecutive years, at the lowest point in 20 years

according to the China Securities Journal, in this context, among the eight listed commercial vehicle companies that have disclosed their annual reports, only Foton Motor and Yutong Bus have achieved year-on-year growth in net profits, while the net profits of leading commercial vehicle companies such as Dongfeng Motor and China heavy truck have fallen sharply. However, some analysts said that according to the data of the fourth quarter of 2012, the commercial vehicle market has stopped falling and stabilized. Ma Ying, an analyst at Yintong strategy, believes that China's economy is expected to recover moderately in 2013, a large number of infrastructure projects need to be launched urgently, and the National IV standard will be fully implemented on July 1, 2013, and many other benefits, as well as the continuous excavation of new growth points by commercial vehicle enterprises, will gradually make China's commercial vehicle market, especially the medium and heavy truck market, show a warming trend

according to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the sales of commercial vehicles in the national automotive industry in 2012 were 3.8112 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.49%. The sales of trucks in commercial vehicles were 3.3338 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.80%, and the sales of passenger cars were 507400, a year-on-year increase of 4.01%. The sales volume of commercial vehicle market fell by more than 5% for two consecutive years. According to the data, the commercial vehicle industry is at a historical trough in the past 20 years

since entering the 21st century, China's commercial vehicle market has experienced two growth cycles. The first round was in, of which the growth rate rose to 29.2% in four years; In the past three years, the growth rate fell to -0.8%. The second round was in, which lasted for six years. In five of them, the growth rate rose to 29.9%; In only one year, the growth rate quickly fell back to -6.3%, and hit a new low in nearly 20 years. In 2012, the growth rate of the commercial vehicle market narrowed to -5.5%. According to the above time rule analysis, the market has gradually entered the third round of growth cycle

analysts said that the long-term potential growth rate of commercial vehicles is closely related to the national economic growth and industrialization process. During the "12th Five Year Plan" period, China is still just entering the middle stage of industrialization. The long-term potential average growth rate of the commercial vehicle market is not only no longer worried that emissions do not meet the standard, but should be basically equal to the GDP growth rate. After adjustment, the positive growth of the industry in 2013 will be a high probability event. From the perspective of fundamentals, after the adjustment in the first three quarters of last year, the sales volume of commercial vehicles in China increased by 8.2% year-on-year in December last year, and the market has shown signs of recovery and rebound

since last year, the number of major projects approved and announced by the national development and Reform Commission has reached 94. These include a number of airport construction, expansion and relocation, five highway and rail transit projects, six foreign loan projects, and ten infrastructure construction projects in the form of work relief carried out by the central government. The launch of such projects will open up development space for the medium and heavy truck market in 2013. In addition, the Ministry of environmental protection requires that all compression ignition engines and vehicles produced, imported, sold and registered for use in vehicles must meet the requirements of National IV standards from July 1, 2013. According to this announcement, the first half of this year will be the last transition time before the implementation of the National IV standard for diesel vehicles, which may stimulate the sales of national III products

in 2009, the relevant departments of the Chinese government have clearly proposed to strive to achieve the export sales of automobiles and parts of 85billion US dollars by 2015, with an average annual growth of 20%; In 2011, the opinions on promoting the sustainable and healthy development of mechanical and electrical products exports during the 12th Five Year Plan period was issued. As one of the 25 key industries, automobile will be taken care of by the policy

when the industry is at a trough, the performance of Listed Companies in the industry is generally poor. Among the eight listed companies that have published their annual reports, the net profits of leading commercial vehicle companies such as Dongfeng Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck fell sharply. Among them, the net profit of Dongfeng Motor fell 94% last year, that of SINOTRUK fell 87% last year, and that of JAC fell 24.22%

from the perspective of performance, Foton automobile and Yutong Bus are the companies with better performance among the enterprises that have published annual reports in the industry so far. Foton Motor achieved a net profit of 1.353 billion yuan last year, a year-on-year increase of 17.43%. Yutong Bus achieved a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan last year, with a year-on-year increase of 31.18%

according to Foton's annual report, the company achieved an annual operating revenue of 40.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%. Analysts believe that the main reason is that Foton automobile and Daimler established a 50:50 Foton Daimler joint venture, and the medium and heavy truck business has not been consolidated since the second half of 2012. Compared with the same caliber, the operating revenue of Foton Motor in 2012 was basically the same as that of the same period last year

it is worth noting that under the industry situation of the continuous downturn of the commercial vehicle market, Foton Motor has achieved the first sales volume of domestic commercial vehicles for nine consecutive years. The company has achieved 620000 vehicle sales throughout the year, although the year-on-year decline of 3.12%, but it is far lower than the decline of the average sales volume of the commercial vehicle industry of 5.5%, and the advantages of Foton Motor's full range of commercial vehicle development mode are obvious. In terms of market segments, Foton Motor's market share has increased: among them, the market share of medium and heavy trucks has increased by 1%, ranking fourth in the country; The market share of light card is 21.8%, which continues to rank first in the industry; Light bus market share is 7.1%, ranking fifth in the industry; The market share of large and medium-sized customers was 3.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 43.7%

at the same time, Foton Motor also has a very eye-catching performance in terms of exports. In 2012, the company exported 44300 vehicles, and the export revenue increased by 70.5% year-on-year to 3.62 billion yuan, which is mainly the result of the company's intensive overseas cultivation in recent years, and also benefited from the promotion of overseas expansion by the company's strategic alliance with Cummins and Daimler

Orient Securities said that benefiting from the improvement of heavy truck demand, Foton Motor's profit in 2013 will continue to improve. It is expected that the sales volume of heavy truck industry will increase by more than 10% year-on-year in 2013, and the growth rate of Foton Heavy Truck sales will still be higher than that of the industry; The production and sales of Foton Cummins engine and other joint ventures will continue to improve, and the self allocation rate of key parts is expected to increase. At the same time, as the commercial vehicle industry tends to be listed in one of the 20 industrial bases (clusters) that the province focuses on, the capacity utilization rate of Foton automobile will also rise, and the development prospect is relatively promising

according to the analysis of industry experts, Foton Motor has accelerated the transformation and innovation in recent years, and is expected to win the first opportunity in the future market competition. In terms of R & D investment, Foton's R & D investment accounted for 4% of the sales revenue in 2012, which was much higher than the investment proportion of China's automobile enterprises between 1.4% and 2.1%, close to the average value of 4% to 5% of the world's major automobile enterprise groups; In terms of new product development, the competitiveness of Foton's high-end products is improving, and the product quality has significantly improved; In the field of new energy vehicles, Foton automobile has formed four core design and manufacturing engineering centers of hybrid power, pure electric power, hydrogen fuel and energy-efficient engine, and has become the industry leader; In the field of heavy machinery, relying on the existing heavy truck resource platform and network, Foton Motor has a large room for growth in the future